Wednesday, April 2, 2008

A recession, really? More like finally...

I understand something my old boss used to say more clearly now than ever, "perception is reality." Bernanke is finally admitting that a recession is looming. It makes sense that the Fed Chairman would hesitate to say something about a recession because of what it would do to the markets. But that's the general problem with the study of economics. We study what happened, not what's going to happen. Economists are some of the most conservative people I know, never wanting to tip the scales in any certain direction because they to understand the phrase "perception is reality." They know the value of letting the market balance itself out, so they keep their comments to a minimum- at least the good ones. But I have to laugh when the Fed Chairman finally says something about it- months after all the minions have been living it...

The last thing the economy needs is to be shoved off this cliff that we stand on with no sense of protection against the fall- I think... The government is working on protections, and it seems that regulations and some corporate/banking process changes have been made, so that we will gently fall to the ground with a "parachute" of sorts. But maybe what we need is to be shoved off the cliff, and fall and see what the disaster looks like at the bottom. Maybe we need to really understand what kind of situation our greed and need to "keep up with the Jones'" has done to our system and our people. We might not be able to understand if we don't just let the bottom fall out.

We Shall See...

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